FRIDAY 9:30 PM, 4TH UPDATE: “I’d back off a little. So far we’re ahead by a lot,” a Sony exec tells me tonight about this seesawing battle at the box office Friday between The Vow and Universal’s Safe House. (Actually the difference is less than a mil.) After much bigger-than-expected midnights and matinees and now opening night, hang on for a wild ride because Hollywood is confident the North American box office can debut four major movies to $20+M on this non-holiday weekend. For certain, that’s never been done before.* I for one am relieved not to write the word ‘slump’ so far when it comes to 2012 since this is not just another ‘up’ weekend but a record-setter.There are real surprises so far today: Sony Pictures/Screen Gems’ The Vow was expected to be the certain frontrunner because of strong tracking. It’s even bigger than projected. The PG-13 romantic tearjerker starring Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams took in $700K in midnight shows and then soared. It is coming on strong Friday evening – aka Date Night. Universal’s R-rated actioner Safe House also is wildly overperforming for an adult-targeted movie and is yet another winner for reliable Denzel Washington after adding $542K in midnights and taking flight. LucasFilm/Fox’s Star Wars 3D: Episode I – Phantom Menace roared in matinees just as it did in $1.1M midnights. But most of that was pre-sales and tonight its momentum is slowing to a $23M weekend which is still a lot of coin. Fanboys wanted to be first in line for this latest version of 1999′s much derided prequel; now can regular moviegoers tolerate Jar Jar Binks again? It all depends on how frontloaded this wild card winds up. If it is, it’ll be beaten by Warner Bros’ PG-rated Journey 2: The Mysterious Island which already opened better-than-expected overseas with $50M. It came on fierce late Friday to probably reach $24.5M in the U.S. and Canada. Stay tuned.
*For the record, on the 2008 holiday weekend December 26-28, all four movies opened on Christmas and all four enjoyed $20+M openings in the three-day weekend: Fox’s Marley And Me ($36.4M), Disney’s Bedtime Stories ($27.4), Paramount’s Benjamin Button ($26.9M), and MGM/UA’s Valkyrie ($21M).
Here are Top Ten Friday/weekend numbers which will refine later tonight:
1. The Vow (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,958 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $15M, Estimated Weekend $39.2M
2. Safe House (Universal) NEW [3,119 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $14M, Estimated Weekend $38.6M
3. Star Wars 3D: Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $9M, Estimated Weekend $23M
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $6.5M, Estimated Weekend $24.5M
5. Chronicle (Fox) Week 2 [2,908 Theater]
Estimated Friday $3.6M (-58%), Estimated Weekend $12M, Estimated Cume $39M
6. The Woman In Black (CBS Films) Week 2 [2,856 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $3.1M, Estimated Weekend $10M, Estimated Cume $35.2M
7. The Grey (Open Road) Week 3 [2,801 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.8M, Estimated Cume $42.5M
8. Big Miracle (Working Title/Universal) Week 2 [2,133 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $952K, Estimated Weekend $3.9M, Estimated Cume $13.3M
9. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 13 [1,581 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $941K, Estimated Weekend $3.4M, Estimated Cume $70.7M
10. Red Tails (Fox) Week 4 [1,580 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $746K, Estimated Weekend $2.8M, Estimated Cume $45.5M
